Byalc Fintech

Your Finance & Hacking Bro

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  • The macroeconomics of filipino workforce export

    I have recently come back from the Philippines, a place where this blog and project (such as the byalcblog and the byalcmath websites) was born. In fact, as my family comes from this place in a small town in the Luzon island, I have come to rest my bones mostly every summer in a very long streak of years.

    I have come to think about economics and thus the blog was born. I had written down notes about BRICS, Russia, Hong Kong, China, Iran and Japan. To think about economics is a habit I have frequently applied and developed throughout my travels around the world. And, as for a fact, that is because of my calling as an analyst of geofinancial phenomena.

    I had to think about the Philippines, somehow, even though I had never been accustomed to reading their newspapers. Some countries just don’t have great journalism – when it comes to be read and interpreted in a direct form, if some of you know what I mean. I can think about South Africa perhaps, where I often struggle to find relevant economic insights. To me, it’s been the same thing for the Philippines.

    Therefore, I just roamed around and observed. And, mainly, I had to think about two main topics – monetary policy and the export of national workforce.

    As good as it may seem, the filipino diaspora is the main reason why there can never be a strong monetary policy in the country. A strong currency can help develop stronger national interests, such as the growth of the private business sector as well as equity. But when it comes to workforce, the phenomenon is not just a “sale” of workforce. It is, in fact, a “leak”.

    One way to see it, is that the leak of filipino workforce, or the diaspora, is exchanged in foreign currency. I have no clue where common sense got this from, but people usually say “at least there is circulating money”. Well, actually, what is happening is the equivalent of a foreign investment in the shorting of the filipino national workforce.

    So what does that mean? As I have already pointed out, no national interests are guarded by the national currency. The job growth is strongly discouraged through the pumping of foreign capital. And that means, that all the money that is spent can only make the private sector grow if foreign capital sustains it. What all that results into is that there is no economic growth.

    Is there a way out of it? As for a start, I’d begin with monetary policy and a healthier banking and financial system.

  • The global bond sell-off

    In the last four days we have seen an unprecedented raise of treasury bonds in three continents,
    the US, Japan and Europe. In this article I’ll debate that they are somewhat linked and that
    these phenomena are not rooted in some exotic happenings in the financial markets.
    The bond sell-offs, be it in Europe or Japan or the U.S., while locally grown, share the
    same long term origin. That is, the disadvantage of an economic war in a measure that
    Central Banks cannot handle.
    As for a start, there surely are some sectors that are going to face short term losses,
    such as the military, while investment banks will go through a mild growth and private funds
    are going to have a spike for private investment.
    But let’s begin the analysis of the discouragement of war in the three continents. I’ll start
    with Japan.
    It is no coincidence that japanese bonds are in a surge. This has to be one of the
    center to look for an answer when it comes to global trade. In fact, the new japanese
    military policy, alongside the encouragement of the tech industry in a parallel funding
    with the new born japanese spy agency are posing the japanese investors a “morally”
    and “historically” question whether the direction towards war can be a profitable business
    for the peace in the Pacific as handled by Japan.
    These new industrial poles impact on the routes of lithium and oil and therefore the Chinese
    monetary export policy can be by such things affected.
    The friction between Japan and Russia over the Pacific is a russian move in order to gain
    a steady business for russian crude oil futures, as russian energy exports meet very
    few outlets and the national prices fuel are determining a hard time for consumers.
    In such a frame setting, the picture of AI business between China and the U.S. is affected
    by the higher risk of Taiwan of suffering a disturbance in global supply for chips.
    But as the chinese export of lithium to Taiwan has to increase, the chip cost devalues,
    letting the AI giants to grow in market value.
    It is possible to spot three ways in which the chinese yuan can be obliged to devalue.
    The first one, the IPO of international AI firms, including chip giant NVIDIA into the Nikkei.
    This way there can be a calming effect on japanese bonds for future international business
    positioning.
    A second way is to limit the export of australian lithium in the Asian continent. This way
    the chinese yuan has to let the chinese lithium be exchanged at a fairer prices. While Australia
    can partner with the West through U.S. oil.
    The third way, a competitive policy for japanese automotive and aerospace supply chain. Such a thing
    may even be favourable for the american military sector.

    As for the american bonds, the Iran war is directly linked to the distrust of the investors.
    That is two-sided. In the first place, the economic war that has been announced by POTUS Donald Trump
    already is determining a distrust in the american consumer habts. Furthermore, the same
    distrust of the investors can be seen as a deterrent not to engage economically with Iran.
    As for safe-haven assets, one sure thing that is necessary, is that the BTCUSD exchange rate
    must not depends on the law of supply and demand. That is, monetary policy cannot rely
    one hundred percent on free trade by the private sector. In my view, such an exchange rate
    has to meet the needs for savings and consumer spending of the population.
    Furthermore, the high interest rates and the bond crysis are linked, or paralleled. Today’s problem
    is that a decrease in the interest rates would determine a growth in the small private businesses,
    which will cause a flow of capitals with no real job market growth, caused by AI.
    This results in a decrease of purchasing power for the consumers.
    The interest rates dilemma has to be quantitavely defined, as for a low enough level increases
    immigration, while a high enough rate favours emigration, or, in political terms, the
    same such thing that is happening, that is the distrust for long term treasury bonds.

    Europe is facing another problem altogether, which consists of a very complex scheme of macreconomics.
    Such a study will be done in a future article. The high immigration rate of Europe is also due
    to its growth rate. And at the same time, the internal migrant crysis across
    the internal borders is weakening the euro as a central bank tool to solve the single countries job markets and consumer spending problems.

  • Retrospective: The paradox of russian centralized state capitalism

    The thoughts that are gathered in this article have been formed in the past January. I had begun reading the newspaper Vedomosti (russian for “Informations, News”) in a search for some kind of paradox in the management of a centralized economy. And therefore what the consequences were when it came to the MOEX, the Moscow Stock Exchange.

    I am a believer that the BRICS circuit, a kind of a circuit which allows some sort of “insider trading” when it comes to the allied countries, brings to possibility a wide range of complex strategies. But nonetheless, these countries are radically different from one another. And, as it seems, there are class A and class B countries. It’s a system which allows countries like Brazil and South Africa to grow, but only through monetary policies which are set by Beijing. In fact, it turns out that most of the time, when the Chinese Central Bank sets the currency for an augmented export rate, all other BRICS currencies devalue in the same time frame.

    There also is such an agreement that facilitates the exchange between BRICS Stock Exchanges (BRICS Exchange Alliance) making it certainly easier for insider information trading.

    But coming back from the grand scheme of things, the two largest economies in the BRICS dimension, the chinese and the russian one, are tremendously different. Different investments, different stock market, different population, different consumer spending. And, as it seems, there is also a different sense of capitalism.

    The part that caught my attention about the MOEX, is that it is not entirely centralized. There are mainly two free dynamics, which I may call a weak dynamic and a strong dynamic.

    The strong dynamic consists of the macroeconomic laws, and by that I mean the laws that move the stock prices before the centralized strategy does. The weak dynamic is the small independence that funds and companies have.

    Companies and funds can, of course, be centralized, but not in an absolute perfect way.

    There are in fact two imperfections. One is on the timing of the centralized strategy and the other is on the beneficiaries of the centralized strategy.

    A centralized strategy is such that the scheduled reassessments cannot be perfectly timed with the global geoeconomic tendencies. Which means that only free investment can create true value and advantage.

    Which also means that an inappropriate strategy in T1, T2, T3 (already out of date when it comes to being applied) cannot be of such a proportionate benefit for all actors, also resulting in disadvantageous costs for some short term investors.

  • Past and recent topics of 2026

    As for a start, I’d like to post about economic topics that I have been dealing with since January. These are the main topics:

    • Invasion of Greeland
    • The DOJ and monetary policy
    • Russian MOEX and the direction of state capitalism
    • A few papers regarding the Iran war (monetary policy and nuclear arms)
    • The consequences of a new spy agency in Japan

    The list doesn’t go much further from here. It is indeed quite a challenging work. But as I’ve written in my first article, I’m starting to breathe again that work ethics that I had left with the closing of Q-Bitrate. New articles soon!

  • A new chapter (in memory of a wrecked ship)

    I must confess: this is not the best time to begin a new chapter. In fact, I am terribly exhausted. I haven’t been able to find some relaxing times and I am building my new work routine for the coming fall. But there will never be a better time than now. Much time had already been lost and plenty of work is ahead, plenty of reward is to gain, so that all of this makes me unable to wait.

    This is nonetheless a new chapter. Which means that the story had already begun. It is the story of my first wrecked ship, the one of the Q-Bitrate business, a blog about finance that met a tragic ending, alongside a mortal illness that I have been suffering for the last three years.

    Happy times, perhaps? I’m not quite sure. I know I am safe now. I know that I’ve been doing the same work I had done for Q-Bitrate, except not being paid. The market analysis that I have kept on doing didn’t bring me the tiniest penny, but it moved me to better positions. Some of which are arguably very good.

    I had been previously appointed for an unpaid internship for a national cybsersecurity firm. Not quite my place. Cash flows – and abundant ones, too – that’s whay my work consists of.

    In the meantime, I have been encouraged to invest my own money, since I had written plenty of correct previsions, some of which quite detailed. Therefore, here I am. I am not unhappy because there’s a lot of work ahead. I am only bothered because there is a lot that I will be taking from my previous wrecked ship, from which I will not be able to avoid catching some feelings.

    Am I happy for this fresh new start? Well, to be honest, I am only happy to be back to business. I love my job and I love market analysis. Also, I have a radically financial view of politics. Not only in the macroeconomic sense, but also in the stock exchanges sense. I have been absorbed by finance. It is the right thing to cherish this obsession.